Part One – Two Big Surprises

It’s thought that Gordon Brown will have a January reshuffle in anticipation of a 2009 election. We could have a long debate about whether or not there will be an election in 2009 but, regardless, a potential election will be at the forefront of Brown’s (and Mandelson’s) mind when appointing the next batch of Ministers.

A lot has been written about a potential return to the Conservative Shadow Cabinet for one of their dwindling number of ‘big beasts’, Ken Clarke. But nothing has been written about any of the Liberal Democrats’ ‘Big Beasts’, probably because there is a false perception that we don’t have any.

I’m not going to be part of the inevitable whirl of speculation about who Brown will choose but I have a few suggestions for how the Liberal Democrats can make the most of this opportunity to bring back some of our own ‘big beasts’ to the front bench; as well as offering up some surprises for the media (something that can often be difficult with such a small pool of MPs to choose from).

Charles Kennedy and Paddy Ashdown, as two former party leaders, are understandably two of the Lib Dems most recognizable faces, and also two of our most able communicators and politicians. Nick has already shown with Vince Cable that he is able to let others take the limelight and, whilst there are pitfalls in bringing two former leaders back to the front bench, I would argue the potential rewards are much greater.

As a party we sometimes find it difficult to be taken seriously by the media. We have been very much a ‘one man band’ in the last two elections and that is likely to be simply replaced by the two-man band of Nick and Vince at the next election. I would argue that what we really need is 5 or 6 faces in our shadow cabinet that are likeable, preferably recognisable and command respect with the public.

Whilst it’s difficult to make an argument that we will form a government after the next election, we do need to appear ready to do so. With the growing potential of a hung parliament we need the talent at the ready to make people feel their vote isn’t just a protest but is a vote that can create some real change and result in real action.

At the same time, following the appointment of Peter Mandelson as Secretary of State for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR) both parties now have the problem that they can’t hold him to account in the Commons. In the past this position hasn’t been high profile in the Lib Dems anyway because our policy is to abolish BERR. However, appointing Paddy Ashdown to shadow Mandelson would do several things:

1) Bring back one of our biggest beasts to the national stage;
2) Allow us to better hold Mandelson to account in the Lords;
3) Put a more experienced face up against the apparent saviour of the Labour party – Mandelson won’t so easily slap Paddy down as he did George Osborne.

There is a caveat to this. I would also say that Paddy’s role should also include public sector reform. He has done some important work in this area, and whilst it sounds dry I personally hope it will develop as an important pillar of the Lib Dems’ narrative at the next election. This is because it allows us to quite neatly lump the other two parties together as parties who refuse to make the tough decisions to deliver public services for the 21st century. It also opens up the opportunity to attack Labour’s failures in education and the NHS because of their profligate spending on unreformed services, without having to promise substantial tax increases in a recession.

Apart from BERR the Foreign Office is a prime target for exposing the excesses of the civil service and it’s over privileged ‘old boys network’. And PFI, whilst having been expensive and ineffective for the tax-payer, is the gift that keeps on giving politically, as it has created a hundreds of expensive mediocre buildings paid through undeclared debt that will be a noose around our collective necks in the coming recession.

Now to Charles Kennedy. What Gordon Brown was missing when he first took power was a John Prescott figure; the political attack dog that can rally the party’s base and energise its activists. He has now found an unlikely person to take up that mantle in Mandelson and is reaping the benefits. In turn, Cameron has Eric Pickles who is able to fire up the right whilst Cameron is free to ignore him.

Nick doesn’t have anyone like that and Charles is perfect for the role. Giving him the Innovation, Universities and Skills brief would suit Charles skills as a communicator perfectly. Between now and the next election he could travel the UK’s universities, growing our student activist base and helping us to fireproof the seats we won in student areas under his leadership. He would also be the best person to communicate any changes to our tuition fees policy – something that has often been floated and then dropped.

* Letterman is a regular commenter on LDV. He is a politically-restricted party member (hence the pseudonym). Part II – Beyond the Big Beasts – will appear tomorrow on LDV.

Part Two – Beyond the Big Beasts (To read Part I – Two Big Surprises – published yesterday, please click here).

Lynne Featherstone has clearly earned a promotion to shadow Ed Balls at the Department of Communities and Local Government, with her work around the ‘Baby P’ case. And David Laws would better suit a move to Energy and Climate Change, where he could make a good case for the economics of our green policies and be an effective opponent of Ed Miliband, thought by many to be the more talented Miliband brother and certainly someone to be taken seriously.

My final choices are where I will most likely lose those of you who have managed to read this far… but hear me out! It is stating the obvious to say that our front bench is extremely white, our representation of minorities is abysmal and there is little we can do about that until the next election, outside of appointments to the Lords. The Conservatives have tried to beat the perceptions of them by appointing Baroness Warsi to a high profile position. We have done little or nothing.

For this I don’t have a complete answer and a reshuffle can only be a tiny part of the solution. We have a potentially effective spokesperson for DCLG in the Lords in Baroness Falkner. Julia Goldsworthy has never seemed entirely comfortable in her role shadowing Hazel Blears, and Nick could do worse than promoting Baroness Falkner in the Lords: she is extremely intelligent and capable (although she may need some media training – she has had a tendency to stumble in some of her Lords’ debates). It would create some challenges in holding Hazel Blears to account in Parliament but those are not insurmountable.

Julia did well in her role as Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury and would again be a good deputy for Vince if she were to return there. Jeremy Browne could move to Defence, where Nick Harvey has done little of note. Putting someone so close to Nick Clegg’s inner circle in this position would send a signal that we are taking defence policy seriously, particularly our policy on the Gurkhas, which straddles defence and the home office. Our withdrawal from Iraq, and the change in policy on Afghanistan coming from Obama, will be important times for the Liberal Democrats to remind the public of our good judgement over this issue. Not to mention the continuing issue of the under-resourcing and over-deployment of our troops under this Government.

There are obviously quite a few glaring omissions here. The Work and Pensions brief will become more important over the next year with the expected increases in unemployment but I haven’t made any suggestions for that. Will Jenny Willott be the best person for the job? Do we need a change at Transport, or is Norman Baker doing a great job as it is? I think Chris Huhne is doing well in his current position at Home Affairs, and there isn’t any real need to move him, but some of you might think otherwise. I also haven’t said what would happen to John Thurso and his award-winning beard.

I hope you can understand some of my reasoning here and if nothing else I hope I’ve started a discussion for what could be some extremely important choices in the run up to the next election. In case you missed them here are my proposed appointments in full:

Shadow Secretary of State for Business and Public Sector Reform (BERR)
Lord Ashdown

Shadow Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills
Charles Kennedy

Shadow Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families
Lynne Featherstone

Shadow Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change
David Laws

Shadow Secretary of State for the Department of Communities and Local Government
Baroness Falkner

Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Julia Goldsworthy

Shadow Secretary of State for Defence
Jeremy Browne

* Letterman is a regular commenter on LDV. He is a politically-restricted party member (hence the pseudonym). You can read Part I of his January reshuffle opinion – Two Big Surprises – by clicking here.

Following the news this morning of Ken Clarke’s return to the Tory front-bench, PoliticsHome lists all the changes:

The Rt Hon Kenneth Clarke QC MP [replaces Alan Duncan]
Shadow Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform

Mark Francois MP [current post, now promoted to shadow cabinet]
Shadow Minister for Europe

Alan Duncan MP [replaces Theresa May]
Shadow Leader of the House of Commons

Chris Grayling MP [replaces Dominic Grieve]
Shadow Home Secretary

The Rt Hon Dominic Grieve QC MP [replaces Nick Herbert]
Shadow Secretary of State for Justice

Nick Herbert MP [replaces Peter Ainsworth, who is sacked]
Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

The Rt Hon Theresa May MP [replaces Chris Grayling]
Shadow Secretary of State for Work and Pensions and Shadow Minister for Women

Eric Pickles MP [replaces Caroline Spelman]
Chairman of the Conservative Party

Caroline Spelman MP [replaces Eric Pickles]
Shadow Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government

So, lots of post-shifting, but only one victim, the fairly hapless Peter Ainsworth, who (indirectly) makes way for Ken’s return.

Lib Dem Voice polled our members-only forum recently to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 500 party members have responded, and we’re publishing the full results.

LDV asked: In the next couple of months David Cameron and Nick Clegg are likely to hold a Cabinet reshuffle. For each of the following 28 Cabinet members please say whether a) they’re doing a good job and should stay in their post, b) they could be doing a better job but should still stay in their post, c) they’re doing a poor job and should be removed from their post or d) Don’t Know/Never heard of them…?
NB: To produce the overall ‘net stay in post’ figures, below, I’ve added together the first two options (a and b above) and subtracted the third (c).

All the data is available below, but here are the key two Top 5s for those who want the quick skinny.

Top 5 cabinet members Lib Dem party members think should stay in post:

Vince Cable, Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary 95%
Ken Clarke, Justice Secretary 88%
William Hague, Foreign Secretary 88%
Edward Davey, Energy and Climate Change Secretary 81%
Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister 66%

Lib Dem Scottish secretary Michael Moore just misses the cut, at number 6, with a net +56% of party members saying he should stay in post (just 9% thought he should be removed). Danny Alexander languishes further down the list, at 14, with a ‘net stay in post’ rating of +45% (with a significant minority of 27% Lib Dem members thinking he should be removed as Treasury Chief Secretary). Intriguingly two Tory cabinet ministers — Clarke and Hague — feature in Lib Dem members’ top 5, testament I suspect not only to how they do their job but also that, for Tories, they’ve exceeded our expectations (whereas some Lib Dem cabinet members may not have met expectations)… Oh, and it also probably reflects a fear of who else from the Tory side might get their job in the reshuffle.

Bottom 5 cabinet members Lib Dem party members think should stay in post:

Jeremy Hunt, Culture, Media & Sport Secretary -66%
George Osborne, Chancellor -60%
Andrew Lansley, Health Secretary -53%
Baroness Warsi, Tory Chairman -39%
Michael Gove, Education Secretary -30%

Few surprises here who props up the list of cabinetistas Lib Dem members would like to see up for the chop at the forthcoming reshuffle. Two further cabinet ministers recorded negative ‘net stay in post’ ratings: Eric Pickles (Tory communities and local government secretary) with -26%, and Theresa May (Tory home secretary) with -15%.

I’ve uploaded a GoogleDoc spreadsheet with all the data from these results, as shown below:

Here’s the full list of ‘net stay in post ratings’:

Vince Cable, Business, Innovation and Skills Secretary 95%
Ken Clarke, Justice Secretary 88%
William Hague, Foreign Secretary 88%
Edward Davey, Energy and Climate Change Secretary 81%
Nick Clegg, Deputy Prime Minister 66%
Michael Moore, Scottish Secretary 58%
David Cameron, Prime Minister 55%
David Willetts, Universities & Science 54%
Andrew Mitchell, International Development Secretary 53%
Iain Duncan Smith, Work & Pensions Secretary 53%
Sir George Young, Leader of the Commons 48%
Justine Greening, Transport Secretary 48%
Philip Hammond, Defence Secretary 46%
Danny Alexander, Treasury Chief Secretary 45%
Oliver Letwin, Cabinet Office 25%
Lord Strathclyde, Leader of the Lords 21%
Owen Paterson, Northern Ireland Secretary 15%
Francis Maude, Paymaster General 14%
Caroline Spelman, Environment, Food & Rural Affairs Secretary 12%
Cheryl Gillan, Welsh Secretary 7%
Patrick McCloughlin, Chief Whip 0%
Theresa May, Home Secretary -15%
Eric Pickles, Communities & Local Government Secretary -26%
Michael Gove, Education Secretary -30%
Baroness Warsi, Tory Chairman -39%
Andrew Lansley, Health Secretary -53%
George Osborne, Chancellor -60%
Jeremy Hunt, Culture, Media & Sport Secretary -66%

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

While the massed ranks of the mostly right-wing political commentariat obsess about the imminent Cabinet reshuffle, Lib Dem interest has been relatively muted.

In one sense this isn’t surprising.

As it stands, 18 of the party’s 57 MPs are on the government payroll, so Nick Clegg has little room for manouevre even among the middle ranks of government. And with only five cabinet positions (four if you exclude Nick himself as Deputy Prime Minister) there’s even less wiggle-room at the top table. Nonetheless, this reshuffle will most likely be the only one that actually matters for the Coalition: this is the one and only chance to re-cast the government in a way that could actually have a long-term policy impact.

The biggest question, the one from which all other personnel changes follow, is whether the founding structure of the Coalition is right: spreading Lib Dem ministers across pretty much all government departments to present the picture of an integrated government of Conservatives and Lib Dems. This seemed the natural and right way of doing things back in the sunny Rose Garden days of blossoming unity. It looks increasingly forced and abnormal now the Coalition is approaching a gloomier autumnal phase.

There have been successes in this form of government. For example, Lynne Featherstone has tenaciously battled for the equalities agenda within the Home Office in a way Theresa May would never have allowed a Tory minister in her department to do. Nick Harvey has been able to thwart Tory efforts to make a faith-based commitment to renewing the Trident nuclear deterrent rather than one based on evidence. Steve Webb has struck up a surprisingly effective partnership with Iain Duncan Smith notwithstanding Lib Dem discomfort at the extent of the Coalition’s welfare cuts.

But these (limited) successes cannot cover up the fact that Lib Dem ministers’ successes depend either on their own devil-may-care gutsiness (Lynne), or on forging an effective working relationship with their Conservative cabinet minister (Steve). I’ve heard from many sources of Lib Dems being in effect shut out of the decision-making in their department. Though Nick Clegg rightly insisted on seeing all papers that pass the eyes of David Cameron, the equivalent licence was not given to our ministers. Too often, they are instructed to face the cameras to announce bad news, and kept hidden out-of-sight for the good news. It is hard to see this modus operandi shifting the closer we get to a 2015 general election.

It’s time to have separate Lib Dem / Tory government departments

Is there an alternative? Yes. It’s the one practised by the Labour/Lib Dem coalition government in Scotland for two terms (1999-2007), and recently hailed by The Spectator’s Fraser Nelson as a shining example of ‘mature coalition’:

That worked because of the way that the late Donald Dewar divided his Cabinet: Lib Dems were given responsibility for portfolios (justice, agriculture) and prided themselves on how competently they handled those portfolios. Ross Finnie and Jim Wallace (farms and justice respectively) acquitted themselves very well, and the Lib Dem share of the vote went up in the 2003 Holyrood election as the electoral admired it. Both were swept away by the SNP surge in 2007 but for eight years it was an example of how coalition can work in Britain. And work to the benefit of the smaller party.

Now I think Fraser overstates how important was the structure compared to, say, the greater shared ‘progressive consensus’ that existed between the two coalition parties in Scotland. But I think he is right to highlight the risk of the next three years of Coalition Government becoming more of a battle within government, with Tories and Lib Dems in each department calculating how best they can spike the other’s guns and leak that they have done so to the media. Not only will that be bad for government, it will also damn for a long time the very concept of coalition in the public’s eyes.

The Lib Dems have two hugely tricky tasks to perform in the second half of the Coalition. The first is to try and restore Lib Dem electoral fortunes. The second is to try and ensure the public sees coalition as a viable and functioning form of government. At the moment those two aims are pulling in different directions. The party is straining at the leash to differentiate itself from the Tories’ increasingly right-wing direction; and finding the only way to demonstrate that is to block Cameron & Co in government. That kind of half-way Coalition satisfies no-one: neither those who want to see outright opposition, nor those who want to try and make the Lib/Con alliance work.

I’m increasingly of the view that the only way to align our incentives in a lasting way is to focus Lib Dem resources in key departments, rather than spread ourselves so thinly. There are exceptions: I think it’s crucial we retain a foot-hold in the Treasury with the post of chief secretary. Whether Danny Alexander is the right person for the job is another matter: while I think too many Lib Dems are quick to malign someone in a role where unpopularity is guaranteed, I just don’t think he’s the person you want fronting for the party on Newsnight. I also think we must avoid carrying the can for Andrew Lansley’s failures at the department of health.

But there are areas of government — most obviously: education, justice, transport, communities and local government, and environment — where I think Lib Dems should be pushing for greater responsibility… even if that means ceding foot-holds in other departments to the Tories. That won’t always be comfortable. In education, for instance, it would mean sticking with the Coalition Agreement’s commitment to free schools, something that’s contrary to official party policy, even while it allows us to ‘own’ Lib Dem policies like the pupil premium.

What it would deliver, though, is clear accountability, enabling the public to judge Lib Dems (and Tories) on their ability to deliver the policies agreed within the Coalition Agreement in government. And it would give all ministers a real incentive to make sure their departments are seen to deliver effective government.

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

Lib Dem Voice polled our members-only forum recently to discover what Lib Dem members think of various political issues, the Coalition, and the performance of key party figures. Some 500 party members have responded, and we’re publishing the full results.

LDV asked: Which backbench Lib Dem MPs who are not current ministers would you like to see promoted? (Please write-in.) (NB: I’ve set the cut-off for inclusion in this list at 5 individual mentions.)

Jo Swinson 77
Julian Huppert 73
David Laws 66
Tim Farron 25
Duncan Hames 21
Simon Hughes 19
Andrew George 16
Tessa Munt 16
Charles Kennedy 12
Chris Huhne 12
Jenny Willetts 12
Tom Brake 10
Adrian Sanders 9
Greg Mulholland 9
Stephen Williams 9
John Pugh 8
Malcolm Bruce 8
Stephen Gilbert 8
Ian Swales 6
Martin Horwood 6
Norman Lamb 6
John Leech 5
John Thurso 5
Menzies Campbell 5

There’s little doubt which three Lib Dem backbench MPs are the clear favourites of our sample of party members to merit promotion to government posts: Jo Swinson, Julian Huppert and David Laws each received write-in mentions from approximately one-quarter of the c.280 members who responded to this question.

Some respondents were conflicted about naming any backbenchers for government posts: “keep them untainted with the future in mind!” was one refrain that echoed. A couple of those who feature above — notably, Julian and Tim Farron — were also named as individuals whose current roles (fighting the Draft Communications Bill and being Party President respectively) were too important to see them lost to a mid-ranking government post.

Besides Julian, Duncan Hames (aka Mr Jo Swinson) and Tessa Munt were the highest-rated of the 2010 entrants. Chris Huhne’s return was seen by those who named him as contingent on being acquitted of the ‘perverting the course of justice’ charges he faces.

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

There’s been plenty of reshuffle chit-chat overt the past few weeks, much of it speculative. However, the Sunday papers appears to included some pretty well-sourced information which went beyond the usual space-filling ‘who knows?’, and appears to suggest good news for both Jo Swinson and David Laws — both of whom enjoyed strong support in our recent survey of members’ preferred back-bencher promotions.

First, The Observer reported that David Cameron’s reshuffle will bring whips back to the fore, with an enhanced whips office incorporating both old-handers and young-turks to help the Tory leader re-assert a grip on his increasingly assertive back-benchers. The paper also notes the return to ministerial office of David Laws, a move which the Mail says would be supported by the public according to one poll:

The poll finds strong support for Mr Laws being given a job that would allow him to help Mr Osborne pull the country out of recession – for example by simply being given his old job back, or by being allocated a ‘roving’ brief that would include an economic portfolio. A total of 44 per cent of voters agree with the idea compared with 16 per cent who disagree. Among Conservative voters, 55 per cent want Mr Laws to help Mr Osborne – close to the 62 per cent figure recorded among Lib Dem voters.

That said, the poll is by new-and-largely-untested polling company Survation; and the question appears to have been worded in such a way that those who voiced support for David Laws may well have felt they were expressing dissatisfaction with George Osborne.

Secondly, The Independent also reports the Laws-to-return theme, and says he will have a non-voting seat at the cabinet, most probably within the free-ranging Cabinet Office department. But it adds some insight into other potential Lib Dem moves:

Jo Swinson, Mr Clegg’s senior ministerial aide, is expected to be the most high-profile Lib Dem promotion in next month’s reshuffle, with a move to replace Lynne Featherstone at the Home Office. Ms Swinson, who co-founded the Campaign for Body Confidence, would take control of the equalities brief, although Lib Dem strategists are keen that she also get a grip on law and order policy. Ms Featherstone is expected to remain in government, having impressed Mr Clegg in the past two and a half years. Lib Dem ministers believed to be vulnerable include Andrew Stunell, the Communities minister, and Lord McNally, the Justice minister.

Reshuffles are mostly just an excuse for Westminster ‘who’s up/down’ gossip. It certainly looks like my hope of single-party departments is unlikely to see the light of day.

The one substantive policy-related aspect to the reshuffle (assuming, and I do, neither George Osborne nor Vince Cable is moved) is the fate of transport secretary Justine Greening, who has vowed opposition to a third runway at Heathrow which would impact on her Putney, Roehampton and Southfields constituency.

A straight job-swap with, for instance, Culture secretary Jeremy Hunt – whose job it will be to receive the Leveson Report on media regulation — would potentially solve two headaches for David Cameron. However, it will open up another front of opposition with the Lib Dems, which strongly oppose Heathrow expansion.

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

As I’m going to be doing little else than sip Earl Grey while watching the News channel for reshuffle news, I thought it might be a good idea to have an open thread to cover events. If you want a laugh, you can have a look at the predictions I made last night.

So, what do we know so far?

Well, Andrew Mitchell, the former International Development secretary was last night appointed Chief Whip.

Sayeeda Warsi is not going to be Party Chairman any more.

Ken Clarke is moving from Justice and is expected to have a Minister without Portfolio role to advise on economic strategy amongst other things. Given that his Justice role had him implementing policies that any Liberal Democrat would be proud of, this could be worrying.

Cheryl Gillan is not going to be Secretary of State for Wales.

Caroline Spelman is being tipped to be out as Environment Secretary, but nothing has been confirmed.

The BBC is just talking about how the main casualties of the reshuffle are women.

It’s also worth pointing out that both Warsi and Gillan took to Twitter to announce their changes, Gillan removing “Secretary of State for Wales” from her profile.

We’ll keep you updated during the morning as events unfold.

While we’re waiting for more news, you might be amused by Liberal Democrat minister Norman Lamb’s tweet from last night which simply said:

Not entirely illuminating. I did ask him to elaborate, told him that he could share what he knew with Twitter and we wouldn’t tell anyone, but he didn’t bite.

Stephen Tall writes… (09.32 am)

For the Lib Dems, here are I think the key things to look out for:

1. Cabinet ministers: the working assumption is none of the five — Clegg (DPM), Cable (Business), Davey (Energy & Climate Change), Alexander (Treasury) and Moore (Scotland) — will move.

2. Which post will David Laws get? We know he’s coming back, most likely it seems within the Education department — he was the Lib Dems’ schools spokesman before 2010 — and perhaps as a non-voting cabinet member (a la Oliver Letwin).

3. Who else will be promoted? Jo Swinson seems a certainty. Jeremy Browne and Lynne Featherstone are likely to be moved, but probably to more senior ministerial roles — perhaps the Home Office and Housing or Communities & Local Government respectively?

4. Who will make way for the promoted? Schools minister Sarah Teather seems a likely casualty, spending more time with her marginal constituency. Others who may leave include Lord (Tom) McNally at Justice — a key role with Ken Clarke’s departure — and Andrew Stunell at Communities & Local Government.

Caron back again to report that it’s been confirmed that both Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith are remaining at Education and Work and Pensions respectively.

9:59 am: While we’re waiting for more news, you might want to have a look at Mark Pack’s post from earlier this year – the night of the long beards. What could this mean for David Heath?

10:10 Caron again. I wondered if Danny Alexander might be up for a move. He is currently in a job where he’s required to make many unpopular announcements mainly because of the difficult economic circumstances in which we find ourselves. Anyone who’s ever been Treasurer of anything will understand how frustrating and tough this can be, even if you do your job really well. A couple of years in a job where he could be in charge of implementing a key Liberal Democrat priority might be on the cards for Danny. I stress I have nothing in the way of evidence to back that up, but could he and Ed Davey be on for a job swap?  Climate change would be the only sensible place to put Danny as Vince and Mike Moore seem to be staying where they are. It’s a long shot, but worth more than an idle thought.

Stephen Tall writes… (10.25 am)

A quick reminder of some of LibDemVoice’s polling of party members’ views on the reshuffle:

1) We asked who Lib Dem members want to see stay/axed in the next Cabinet reshuffle here: the most popular Tory was Ken Clarke, long ago labelled the sixth Lib Dem cabinet minister and now sadly shunted out of the Justice department, closely followed by William Hague.

2) We also asked who were top of Lib Dem members’ wish-list for promotion here: Jo Swinson, Julian Huppert and were by some way the most-mentioned.

10:39 Caron writes:

Confirmed appointments:

• Andrew Lansley moved from Health to be Leader of the Commons
• Theresa Villiers to Northern Ireland

Confirmed sackings:

• Edward Garnier as Solicitor General

Chris Grayling and Jeremy Hunt have been seen going in to Downing Street. The BBC were reporting that Hunt could be moved to Health which would be a big promotion for somebody who has attracted such controversy over Murdoch.

There is no news of any Liberal Democrat changes yet.

10:50

Chris Grayling, not a particular fan of the Human Rights Act and the man who said that B and B owners should not be obliged to accommodate gay couples if they didn’t approve, replaces new Justice Secretary.

Justine Greening is now in Downing Street amid speculation that she’ll be removed from Transport for being too opposed to a third runway at Heathrow.

11:08

A smiling Jeremy Hunt emerges from No 10 saying his promotion to Health Secretary is the biggest privilege of his life. Presumably it’s thought that if he could talk his way out of the issues around Murdoch, for which his Special Adviser had to resign, that he could make a better job of convincing people that the NHS reforms are not the end of civilisation as we know it.

11:49

Patrick McCloughlin is to replace the anti third runway Justine Greening as Transport Secretary.

12:15

Mark Pack writes… Interesting change at the Home Office with Theresa May’s woman and equalities brief being taken over by new DCMS Secretary of State, Maria Miller.

As for how to judge the Lib Dem changes when they are all in, here are my four criteria.

12:23

Paul Walter writes… I was tempted to say that this is basically a reshuffle to get rid of people who have cocked things up. But then Jeremy Hunt was appointed Health Secretary….

It would have been good news if Andrew Lansley had left Health well over a year ago. Now, it is closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.

It is shame that Ken Clarke is leaving Justice, though he was always a bonus for the Lib Dems, and will at least still be in cabinet.

We should take satisfaction that all four Lib Dem cabinet ministers stay as they are, but not too much satisfaction as this reflects the fact that 50% of our post holders – Laws and Huhne – had to leave previously.

12:25

Paul Walter writes… David Jones is the new Welsh Secretary. Adam Boulton of Sky News cheerfully admitted earlier today that he ddidn’t know what Mr Jones looks like. Presumably he has since Googled him….

12:26

Paul Walter writes… Cameron has done quite a skilful job to keep the female/male balance in the cabinet, although still not enough women, by bringing in Maria Miller and Theresa Villiers. Gillan and Spelman left. Warsi is “attending cabinet” but down a peg from what I can see.

12:31

Paul Walter writes… All this is not good news for opposition to Heathrow expansion. Greening was opposed. McLoughlin, who replaces her at transport, is said to be “open minded”.

12:33

Paul Walter writes… Grant Schapps is new Chairman of the Tory party. Hopefully he has changed his password by now (old in-joke – sorry).

12:34

Paul Walter writes… A beaut of a quote from Matthew Parris via the BBC:

Former Tory MP Matthew Parris says that David Cameron is not rearranging deckchairs on the Titanic but on “a rather leisurely cruise around the Mediterranean”

12:40

Paul Walter writes… It has to be barking mad to make a non-lawyer Lord Chancellor and Minister for Justice. Just crazy. But – ho-hum – time will tell.

12:41

Paul Walter writes…We now appear to be moving into the non-cabinet ministry posts. At the moment, all the runes are pointing to Sarah Teather leaving Education and being replaced by David Laws. There is also the likelihood of Jo Swinson coming into government somewhere. It would be good if there was a Lib Dem minister at DEFRA, IMHO. We can all hope…

12:44

Paul Walter again… Esther McVey, Helen Grant and Anna Soubry are tipped for government roles.

12:47

Paul again… The Guardian has a full list of the runners and riders so far here, with the exception of the update that Grant Schapps is the new Chairman of the Conservative Party.

12:50

Paul again… The portfolio of women and equalities portfolio has moved to Maria Miller, MP for Basingstoke, who also becomes Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport. This leaves a question mark over Lynne Featherstone. There was a rumour that Lynne was going to swop roles with Jeremy Browne at the Foreign Office.

12:54

Paul again…The BBC reports that Boris Johnson has said that it shows that the government is committed to the “simply mad” policy of a new third runway at Heathrow. Interesting stuff…

12:56

Paul again…+++BREAKING+++ Sky sources confirm that David Laws will be Education Minister.

12:59

Paul again….From the BBC:

BBC Wales Political Editor Betsan Powys writes on her blog that, perhaps surprisingly, the new Welsh Secretary is the first Jones in the job.

13:07

Paul again…From the BBC:

Lib Dem MP Andrew George says his party is “reassured” that Ken Clarke is remaining in the cabinet. He says Andrew Lansley has left a “catastrophe” at the Department of Health and he hopes Jeremy Hunt will be a “new broom”.

13:15

Paul again… The indications are that Labour will kick up quite a fuss about Jeremy Hunt’s promotion. One has to ask, does Hunt have some incriminating photos of David Cameron stashed away in a bottom drawer somewhere?

13:31

Paul again… Oliver Heald is replacing Edward Garnier as solicitor general, according to Sky.

13:32

Paul again… Nick Clegg is appearing on TV shaking hands outside the Cabinet Office with David Laws. Nice one.

13:35

Paul again… Zac Goldsmith is not happy with developments concerning the Heathrow expansion issue. He has tweeted:

Greening’s appointment 11 months ago indicated the PM’s position on Heathrow was solid. Yielding so easily suggests panic, not principle.

13:38

Paul again… One glimmer of hope from this reshuffle. Perhaps David Laws will be able to give Michael Gove what for at Education… We can only hope!

13:39

Paul again… Paul Waugh has tweeted:

This is 1st Cabinet for 15 years that lacks a non-white Cabinet minister. What happened to Cam plan to target the ethnic vote?

13:41

Paul again… Mark Ferguson on LabourList highlights some past quotes from David Laws which may indicate that he will be a strong counter-weight to Michael Gove at Education.

Stephen Tall writes… (2.28 pm)

The Prime Minister who reshuffles always upsets the sacked — but David Cameron is also antagonising the current darling of the Tory right, Boris Johnson, who has hit out at David Cameron’s decision to move Justine Greening from Transport seemingly as a prelude to pushing for a third Heathrow runway:

There can be only one reason to move her – and that is to expand Heathrow Airport. It is simply mad to build a new runway in the middle of west London. Nearly a third of the victims of aircraft noise in the whole of Europe live in the vicinity of Heathrow. Now it is clear that the government wants to ditch its promises and send yet more planes over central London.

And another Tory – MP for Richmond Zac Goldsmith – is just as apoplectic:

Greening’s appointment 11 months ago indicated the PM’s position on Heathrow was solid.Yielding so easily suggests panic, not principle.

— Zac Goldsmith (@ZacGoldsmith) September 4, 2012

Zac of course has previously threatened to trigger a David Davis-style by-election if the Tories’ dump another manifesto / Coalition Agreement promise, and also vowed not to re-stand as a Conservative if the party includes a commitment to a third Heathrow runway in its 2015 manifesto.

Stephen Tall writes… (2.39 pm)

News starting to filter through of the changes among Lib Dem ministers:

Norman Lamb REPLACES Paul Burstow as Health minister — Norman was of course the party’s health spokesman until 2010 and was reputedly blocked from being appointed to the post then by… Andrew Lansley, now departed. So a completely fresh team at the Health department. I’ll skip the too-easy punning you can do on Hunt and Lamb.

Jo Swinson REPLACES Norman Lamb at Business, Innovation and Skills (BIS), Vince Cable’s department. No surprise to see Jo get a well-deserved promotion; a bit more of a surprise to see Norman leave Vince’s department after only five months (he was drafted in to replace Ed Davey when he was promoted to the cabinet following Chris Huhne’s enforced departure… are you still with me?).

And an update on David Laws’ role — though he replaces Sarah Teather (leaving government to spend more time in her wafer-thin marginal seat in Brent) as schools minister, his brief is likely to be more wide-ranging. In other words, while he’s unofficially been licenced to rove by Nick Clegg since his departure from the cabinet in May 2010, now he will officially be licenced to rove.

Stephen Tall writes… (2.55 pm)

Here’s a surprise: Nick Harvey is to leave the post of Armed Forces minister. Here’s how Western Morning News journalist Graeme Demianyk broke it:

North Devon MP Nick Harvey announces to leave as Armed Forces Minister

— Graeme Demianyk (@GraemeDemianyk) September 4, 2012

Devon Lib Dem MP Nick Harvey on being dumped from MoD: “Strategic political decision to ‘trade’ this post for one in another department.”

— Graeme Demianyk (@GraemeDemianyk) September 4, 2012

It sounds like Nick Clegg has reasoned Nick Harvey has done enough in his two years in the defence department to thwart the Tories’ hopes of an automatic renewal of Trident without consideration of any alternatives — as a result, the Lib Dems are better placed using one of their allocation of ministerial positions in another department. This is what the Indy’s Matt Chorley speculates:

Does LibDems giving up Defence (and Trident battle?) mean a swoop for DCMS place to influence Leveson outcome? #reshuffle

— Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) September 4, 2012

Meanwhile, overseeing the Trident review from the Lib Dem perspective will fall within the ‘roving’ part of David Laws’ brief. He’s a tough negotiator who won’t let Tory hopes of throwing money at out-moded defence systems slip through.

Stephen Tall writes… (3.10 pm)

David Heath moves to become a minister at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) from the post of deputy leader of the House of Commons — a much better role for the Somerton and Frome MP to campaign from and defend his always-marginal seat.

* Caron Lindsay is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

The official line is that today’s reshuffle is all about prioritizing the economy – with reasonable evidence for this with Ken Clarke staying on with an economic brief; Cameron beefing up the Whip office and thus backbench discipline; and appointing someone with previous experience of that role – Patrick McLoughlin – to Transport to push through infrastructure projects like HS2.

But the commentary from Twitter to the BBC is already painting this as a move to the right. Lib Dem tweeters are suddenly gloomier about the lifetime of this coalition, but here’s what I think: the Tories have inadvertently given us a windfall.

First of all, a move to the right does no favours to the Conservative party. They failed to win a majority as a modernized party in 2010, and moving backwards won’t help – promoting Jeremy Hunt to Health has sparked jokes about Murdoch buying the NHS, Grayling’s comments about B&Bs refusing gay customers have been brought back to the fore, and overall the reputation of the ‘Nasty Party’ seems back to stay (not to mention George Osborne’s pantomime villain greeting at the Paralympics).

Secondly, and more importantly, any shift to the right boosts our claim to the centre-ground, with breathing space to establish our own identity. And frankly this couldn’t come at a better time with the coalition evolves into a stage of greater differentiation. Now is where we can begin to spell out our own views on what we would do with a Lib Dem in charge of the Justice Department; instead of pandering to Eurosceptics we must tell voters in rural communities like Somerset what the EU can do for them, and how we’d reform it.

And thirdly, with the honeymoon phase completely and utterly over for even those most supportive of our evolution into a party of government, our reason for staying in the coalition is inescapably clear: the economy. Whilst we still have a chance to implement and influence policies through Lib Dem ministers – watch out for a Liberal Democrat stamp on education reforms with David Laws joining
Michael Gove – we can now be unequivocal that we are not Conservatives, we differ with them on a number of social policies, but we have made this sacrifice and continue to do so in the national interest and with a view to getting the economy back on track.

If we can commit ourselves to the task at hand, and take joint ownership of restoring the economy to health, whilst doing what we can to make sure it happens in a fairer, greener and Liberal Democrat way then we can once again look voters in the eye and ask for their support.

* Sean Davey is the Chair of London Liberal Youth

You can catch up on the rolling LibDemVoice live-blog of today’s reshuffle here and the current list of official Lib Dem appointments here.

Three Lib Dem ministers are at the time of writing departing the Coalition Government for the backbenches. Each of them has issued statements as follows:

Sarah Teather, Liberal Democrat MP for Brent Central:

It has been a huge privilege to serve as an education minister in the coalition government over the last two and a half years. I’m hugely proud of the part I have been able to play in ending child detention, and rolling out the pupil premium, giving free nursery places to disadvantaged two year olds, amongst many other achievements. Particularly close to my heart has been the work to reform the system of support for children and families with special educational needs and disability. It is a cause I have championed partly as a result of my own experience of illness and disability as a teenager. I would have dearly liked to be able to carry that work through to completion. I now hand that task over to others in Government to finish.

“I am certain David will be an outstanding education Minister. We have been friends for many years and I am delighted for him that he has been given one of the best and most rewarding roles in Government. I shall support him and the Government now from the backbenches. My number one priority will continue to be representing my constituents, which has always been my first love, and I’m also looking forward to having a little more time for myself. “

Paul Burstow, Liberal Democrat MP for Sutton, Cheam & Worcester Park:

I am sad to be leaving the Government. Ever since I took on my dream job as Care Services Minister I have had the opportunity to make a difference in a policy area I care deeply about. Having dedicated most of my political career to improving the health and care of others it has been an absolute privilege to be directly involved in framing a new social care law and working closely with colleagues in the sector to set out a reform agenda in the Care and Support White Paper.

In the last two years or so I have been able to introduce policies that will improve the mental health of adults and children, the care of older people and the diagnosis of dementia. I am confident my successor will now take on the challenge to ensure these reforms improve the lives of people in receipt of care up and down the country.

Finally, I would like to pay tribute to those professionals across the care sector who dedicate their lives to caring for others. I’d also like to assure these people, and others, that I remain committed to reforming the social care system in the long-term.

Nick Harvey, Liberal Democrat MP for North Devon

It has been a pleasure to have served as a defence minister and an honour to have worked with our armed forces, whose courage, dedication and professionalism inspire all who come into contact with them. This has been a challenging period and we have had to make very tough and sometimes unpalatable decisions about reductions in our defences, at the same time as sustaining the operation in Afghanistan and other security tasks like the recent effort supporting the Olympics.

“Nick Clegg made it clear that the decision was not a reflection on my performance in the job, which he said was widely regarded as having been excellent, but rather a strategic political decision to ‘trade’ this post for one in another government department. My replacement at Defence will therefore be a Conservative. I will continue to support the coalition government, and my Liberal Democrat colleagues working so hard as part of it, from the slightly freer and less regimented world of the backbenches. And I look forward to having more time with my family – and for my constituency work in North Devon, which I have been proud to represent in Parliament for twenty years.”

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

Ahead of the reshuffle, I posted four criteria against which the Liberal Democrat part of the shuffling should be judged. Now nearly all the details are in, how does it look?

Most importantly, have people been put in jobs they’ve got a decent chance of doing well? It’s hard enough being a minister in the smaller party in a coalition government without having lots of people thrown into policy areas they are completely new to.

On this score, the reshuffle does very well. In particular, David Laws at education, Jeremy Browne at the Home Office, Norman Lamb at health and Lynne Featherstone at international development all gives people policy areas they previously have been interested in and spend time on. David’s long-running passion for education is well known; both Norman and Jeremy were at various times the party’s spokesperson on their new patch in opposition; and Lynne has also both been international development spokesperson and taken a particular interest in the international aspects of her previous Home Office brief.

The limited swapping around of jobs with the Conservatives also makes good campaigning and electoral sense for the party – there’s far more votes to be won for the party in DEFRA (where one of the party’s many rural MPs, David Heath, takes up post) and DFID (where there is the chance to appeal to one of the party’s traditional sources of support) than in the Foreign Office, for example, especially as all the major foreign issues end up with Nick Clegg anyway.

Does being a minster who disappears into their department and doesn’t do much in the way of communicating or campaigning to promote the Liberal Democrats matter? Some ministers have been far better than others at this; will this be reflected in the changes?

The MPs who have done well out of the reshuffle are also good campaigners, and ones who have consistently remembered to promote the Liberal Democrat cause even when we’re in government. Jo Swinson is the most obvious, and is now clearly the party’s main rising star. Tom Brake too is in this category – he has been one of the party’s unsung heroes – and Don Foster (Andrew Stunell’s replacement) knows all about winning a tough seat in a high profile election.

Quite a few party members will have put Julian Huppert in the same category and hoped he too would enter government. I hope Julian doesn’t mind me thinking that, for the moment at least, he is best outside of government as the areas at which he excels span several areas and as being a minister would not fit with being on the Pre-legislative Scrutiny Committee for the Draft Communications Bill.

When it comes to the moves within government, Jeremy Browne had somewhat disappeared into the Foreign Office as a good minister but a very low profile advocate for the party’s cause with the public. The Home Office posting gives him a chance to remedy that.

Moving Norman Lamb to the Department of Health not  only puts a health expert in post, it also puts in one of the hotspots an MP with an excellent record at winning over party members to support a controversial policy – as he did with the Post Office and Royal Mail in opposition, partly by changing some parts of it, partly by spending a lot of time listening and communicating and partly be persuading people of the virtues of it

One or two other low-profile ministers may be breathing a sigh of relief that it hasn’t counted against them so far. If there is to be another reshuffle before the 2015 general election, that is a luxury that party can ill afford.

David Laws is going to come back. Even though he’s a contributor to the Orange Book and I was a contributor to Reinventing the State, I think those sorts of distinctions are pretty small set against what we have in common compared to the other parties. Bringing him back is the right move as he’s one of our most talented MPs. It would be daft however to ignore how some party members will feel about Laws’s return. So how well balanced overall are the changes made?

With Laws back and Browne into a more prominent role, not to mention the friend-of-Liberator Nick Harvey sadly leaving government, you could get all excited about a shift. Look further, however, to changes such as the big leap up for Jo Swinson and incomers such as Tom Brake who are slap in the mainstream of the party and the overall picture is one of very little change in any direction.

Nick Clegg’s often talked about the need to improve the party’s diversity. His previous government appointments, mini-reshuffles and House of Lords appointments have show promising moves in that direction. Yet we are also on course to go through a whole Parliament with a 100% white and male Lib Dem Cabinet line-up. How much do the changes today match the previous rhetoric, even allowing for shortage of diversity amongst those he can choose from?

One woman in, one woman out, one woman sideways. Not much progress there save that it’s no longer a case of ‘women do the equalities and children stuff’. Progress of a minimal sort.

[UPDATE: I'm led to believe by a senior source, aka I've had a text message from a reader, that I've jumped the gun a bit on this and there will be more movement when we see the final details. Hard to see where that will be in ministerial terms; perhaps we'll see something on the PPS and Whips fronts?]

[UPDATE 2: Jenny Randerson is becoming a new Liberal Democrat minister, boosting the number of female ministers by one and also boosting the number of peers in the government by one, very handy given how stretched those peers in government have been covering all the issues in the Lords.]

Overall then? A pretty good shuffling of the Liberal Democrat deck. And none of it that important compared to what happens to the economy.

* Mark Pack has written 101 Ways To Win An Election and produces a monthly newsletter about the Liberal Democrats.

Our own Stephen Tall has been analysing the Reshuffle over at Endeavour Public Affairs.

He says that an opportunity to pursue a more radical economic agenda has been missed:

The Government should be building on this with a radical and popular agenda to create a more competitive and much, much fairer economy, as I argued here on LibDemVoice.  This would mean further banking reform than currently proposed, for example by separating completely retail and investment banking, and parcelling up and selling on the currently state-owned banks into a number of smaller ones to create greater plurality in the system.  More than this, it should be looking to re-invigorate capitalism by ensuring success not failure is rewarded, with shareholders given powers genuinely to hold executives to account for their performance. Nothing in the reshuffle suggests the Coalition is gearing up for this challenge.

He talks about the relative ideological positions within both Liberal Democrats and Conservatives:

Put bluntly: the Cameron modernisation project to position his party in the political centre is dead.  This reshuffle marked a definite shift to the right for the Tories.  By contrast, the two newest Lib Dem ministers – Jo Swinson and Tom Brake – are squarely in the mainstream of the party, neither identified with the economically liberal ‘Orange Bookers’ nor the Social Liberal Forum.

You can read the article in full here.

* Caron Lindsay is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

Nick Harvey’s had a tough week. On Tuesday his ministerial career was brought to an abrupt and surprising halt when Nick Clegg told him he was ‘trading’ his post of armed forces minister for a Lib Dem foothold in another department.

The North Devon MP has been a victim of his own success. So shrewdly has he overseen the Trident nuclear weapons review — the crunch defence decision which divides Lib Dems and Tories — that it is highly likely to produce more effective, better value deterrent options, with a final decision not needed until 2016, after the next election. We hear often enough about rewards for failure. Nick Harvey just encountered punishment for success.

So I can understand Nick Clegg feeling guilty. But it is nonetheless quite, quite wrong for Nick Harvey to have been offered a knighthood on his enforced retirement. It is an outrageous abuse of the patronage system which the Lib Dem leader so passionately denounced in the Commons on Monday when withdrawing his Bill to reform the House of Lords because of Tory and Labour opposition.

Last week, I named Tory MP Bernard Jenkin my ‘CentreForum Liberal Hero of the Week’ for his call for increased transparency and public confidence in the honours system. “We believe that no-one should be honoured for simply ‘doing the day job’, no matter what that job is,” said Mr Jenkin on behalf of the Commons’ Public Administration Committee. Damn straight.

Nick Harvey has done a sterling job at the defence department. For that he has my gratitude, and my sympathies at the manner of his departure. But he shouldn’t have been offered a knighthood, and Nick Clegg should have seen to it that no Lib Dem was implicated in anything as shabby as a reshuffle honours list.

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum, and also writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

Compared to many a previous government reshuffle, this week’s went at a pretty standard rate. It felt, however, slower. Slower because our speeded up news cycle and appetite for instant updates, fed above all by Twitter, means that spreading out a series of announcements over several hours feels slow and bitty.

You don’t have to go very far back in time for a reshuffle that takes a good part of the day still to feel quick to most as it would all be heard about in one wrap-up report in the evening news, a further one in the next day’s paper and then the same again as the more junior posts were sorted. Instead, in a world of rolling news, live blogs and social media the drip drip real time information makes the same process feel far more elongated.

Another impact is that we all (myself and this site included) make judgements that are running commentary; partial views based on partial information. It’s worth therefore sometimes taking a step back at the end, recapping and checking what the complete picture looks like.

Here then is the complete (I think and hope!) list of changes in posts for the Liberal Democrats as a result of the reshuffle. The ‘evacuation’ of the Foreign Office and the Ministry of Defence caught much early comment in the process; how does it look set against the overall picture now?

Changes in posts held by Liberal Democrats

Attendees at Cabinet: +1 (David Laws)
Foreign & Commonwealth Office: -1 Minister of State
Ministry of Defence: -1 Minister of State
Home Office: -1 junior minister

Home Office: +1 Minister of State
Department of Food, Environment and Rural Affairs: +1 Minister of State
International Development: +1 junior minister
Welsh Office: +1 junior minister

The arguments used to justify these switches are:

• A reshuffle that results in more Liberal Democrats in government is a good thing. (Well, I presume that’s what someone is saying. Must admit until I did the maths I had not noticed anyone in the party noting the numbers had gone up…!)
• Major foreign policy issues end up crossing the Deputy Prime Minister’s desk anyway, and the key issue for the party on Defence is Trident, the review into which is being transferred from the MoD to David Laws’s new roving brief.
• Having a more senior ministerial post in the Home Office is very useful given the number of key issues, particularly on civil liberties, that pass through the department. (The reality of what happens to equal marriage and how Jeremy Browne approaches the Draft Communications Data Bill will quickly tell us a lot about whether this holds up.)
• The DEFRA post is a vital one given the number of problems the department has thrown up for the party and the large number of Liberal Democrat MPs from rural seats.
• Both the DFID and Welsh posts also strengthen the party’s ability to appeal to key constituencies. On DFID it is not only that it is an area traditionally of concern to many Liberal Democrats, it is also that DFID handles issues in countries which many voters have close family ties with.

That’s the theory. How does it look to you?

Updated to remove my erroneous reference to Ken Clarke.

* Mark Pack has written 101 Ways To Win An Election and produces a monthly newsletter about the Liberal Democrats.

The reshuffle: the talking point of the last few days. I’m sure we all feel a bit angry and flustered after the Tory side was announced – Hunt at health, Miller as equalities. It really could not have been much less liberal. Our side, though, may at first appear entirely less interesting, and far more acceptable. There were some great moves in the reshuffle, sure. Jo Swinson as an Undersecretary of State. David Laws is back. This reshuffle, though, has cut out something essential to the Liberal Democrats: our internationalism. Lib Dems gone from FCO. No Lib Dems in the MOD. One minister, Lynne Featherstone, in DFID. And Lynne’s briefing (at the time of writing) has still not been an announced. This reshuffle represents an almost complete retreat from international affairs.

Internationalism is one of the things the Lib Dems pride ourselves on: our attitude to the European Union is really quite distinctive amongst mainstream politics, we work closely with our sister parties, and our opposition to the Iraq war was certainly amongst the most vocal. Foreign Affairs is not a fairly ‘non-partisan’ area, as I had it put to me. There are huge divergences in Liberal Democrat and Conservative policy here, and now we have absolutely no one fighting our corner, it seems. Even Lynne in DFID isn’t really going to have much of a say: when behind-closed-door discussion takes place on the European Union, the Eurozone crisis, our involvement in NATO, renewal of Trident, and our relationship with the US, particularly with the upcoming Presidential elections, and other big issues at the moment, DFID are hardly the most involved.

Clegg has done, and will presumably continue, to take a keen interest in international affairs. Our only point of influence at the moment it seems. But he’s still Deputy Prime Minister. He may have influence but his interest and involvement has to encompass… well… everything. To even consider for a moment that he and his team will be able to follow international events and issues closely enough that this government’s foreign policy will have a proper Lib Dem stamp on it is naive, and downright ridiculous.

Internationalism is, to me anyway, a key part of our liberalism. It feels like we’ve given up a little bit more of ourselves in this reshuffle. Maybe just too much…

So: why the withdrawal? Is there anything that can justify it? Is it because foreign affairs isn’t necessarily a huge vote winner? Ahem, Mr Clegg… Elections to the European Parliament are just around the corner, in 2014. How exactly can we base our platform here, for international elections, on having practically given up our involvement in government foreign policy? If there is way, it escapes me.

Whatever the reasoning behind this move, it definitely requires an explanation. And I just can’t see how there is one.

* Harriet Ainscough is a former International Officer of Liberal Youth.

From the BBC:

Michael Moore has been sacked as Secretary of State for Scotland and replaced by Alistair Carmichael, another senior Liberal Democrat.

The move comes as a reshuffle of Conservative and Lib Dem ministers in the coalition government is under way.

Mr Moore was a leading figure in the No campaign ahead of the referendum on Scottish independence next September.

Moore had been Secretary of State since he replaced Danny Alexander at the end of May 2010.

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie praised Mike Moore’s achievements and welcomed Alistair Carmichael’s appointment. He said:

Mike Moore is leaving on a high after three very good years as Scottish Secretary. He persuaded the nationalist Government to approve the Scotland Act they previously condemned as a poison pill.  Against the odds he secured an agreement with the nationalists on the conduct of the referendum.  Mike Moore repeatedly outwitted Alex Salmond.

As we move to the next stage of the campaign I am looking forward to working with Alistair Carmichael. His feisty style combined with his charm, wit and intelligence is just what we need for the last twelve months in our efforts to safeguard our partnership with the rest of the United Kingdom.

As we reported earlier, Michael Moore is to leave Government and will be replaced as Scottish Secretary by Alistair Carmichael.

When a Minister leaves office, there is always an exchange of letters between them and their party leader. Here is the exchange between Mike and Nick Clegg:

Nick Clegg’s letter to Mike Moore:

Dear Mike

I want to thank you for the vital role you have played as Secretary of State for Scotland over the past three years.

You became Scottish Secretary in 2010 at a critical time in Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom and you have managed the challenges of the situation with great skill and effectiveness.

Not only have you successfully piloted through legislation to enable Scotland to take a major step towards the party’s long held goal of ‘Home Rule’. but you have also ensured that the referendum next year will give the Scottish people a clear and decisive question on which to cast their vote.

It should be recognised that you secured both the Scotland Act and the Edinburgh Agreement in the context of a majority SNP government at Holyrood, and against a backdrop of an external political narrative that often suggested the legislation would fail and a referendum agreement could not be secured. You have achieved all of this while working ceaselessly for the interests of the Scottish people within the United Kingdom.

As we discussed when we spoke on Friday, I believe we now need to draw on different experience in the final year running up to the referendum itself and I am keen that just as we have benefited from your formidable skills over the past three years that we take advantage of other experience within our ranks during this period.

I am immensely grateful for all the work you have done at the Scotland Office and for the very significant contribution you have made to the first coalition government in 70 years. I have no doubt that there will be an opportunity for your talents to be deployed in government in the future.

Yours sincerely,

Nick Clegg

Mike Moore’s reply

Dear Nick

Thank you for your letter.

I am grateful to have had the opportunity to be part of the cabinet. Putting Liberal Democrat policies into practice in government has been our party’s ambition for a very long time and I have valued the chance to play a key role in it.

This has been, and will continue to be, a hugely important time in Scottish politics and that has made it a challenging and rewarding time to be Secretary of State for Scotland. Taking the Scotland Act through Parliament and negotiating the Edinburgh Agreement have been the highlights of my time in office, as well as, more recently, making the case for Scotland to stay part of the United Kingdom.

However, I have also valued the chance to get out and about around Scotland week after week to listen to the challenges facing people and make sure those are understood by colleagues elsewhere in government. I am glad that there are now early signs of economic recovery, but we must not lose sight of the huge difficulties many people still face.

Over the last few years I have worked with a superb team of civil servants and advisers in the Scotland Office, and other government departments, in very challenging circumstances. I do not think the support teams for ministers always get the credit they deserve: I am very grateful for the support they have given me.

In leaving the Scotland Office I am pleased that Alistair will be succeeding me. As a good friend and long time colleague, I believe he will do a superb job. I wish him all the best.

Yours sincerely,

Michael Moore

When I was about 10, I had a bit of an obsession with football. I quickly grew out of it, I hasten to add. I had my favourite players, most notably Sandy Jardine, Alan Rough and, above all, Kenny Dalglish. These three could do no wrong in my young opinion. Even then I knew playing for Partick Thistle was a good thing.

I used to get very irked whenever one of them was substituted, especially when they were playing well. I just couldn’t see why you would take off a proven performer who was doing well, even if they were replaced by someone else that I liked. Sometimes that needs to happen to get fresh legs on the field, or if the tone of the game changes and needs a different tactic. It still makes you cry, though. When these changes involve not remote footballers but two of your friends, your emotions are very mixed.

That’s kind of how I feel today as we hear the news that Mike Moore is leaving the Cabinet. He’s been Secretary of State for Scotland since he replaced Danny Alexander in the wake of David Laws’ resignation in May 2010. He’s been in office during an exceptional time for Scotland, delivering further devolution and laying the groundwork for the independence referendum both process and developing the pro-UK case.

In 40 whirlwind months, Mike has ensured the biggest transfer of fiscal power to Scotland in 300 years with the Scotland Act; he’s laid the foundations for a legal, fair and decisive referendum on independence; he’s championed Scotland around the world from Brazil to China.

None of this has been easy. At the end of 2011, the Scotland Act was widely perceived to be dead in the water. It was dismissed by the SNP as a dog’s breakfast and came close to being scuppered by Labour at Westminster. Thanks to Mike’s measured, respectful and reasonable approach, it was passed by both Scottish and Westminster parliaments within a few months. Mike is very good at building relationships across parties. SNP Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon described him  on Twitter as “A tough opponent but always pleasant.”

He then had to deal with, on one hand, some Conservatives who thought that imposing their own referendum on Scotland would be a productive thing to do and the SNP insisting that it would not brook any interference from Westminster on any aspect of it. Again by being reasonable, he secured the Edinburgh Agreement, in the process agreeing to 16 and 17 year olds having the vote for the first time in a Scottish election.

Defending the status quo can be a challenge, but under his leadership the Scotland Analysis papers produced by the Scotland Office have built a credible case for Scotland to stay in the UK.

Mike leaves a remarkably strong foundation for his successor. The game is changing, though and that’s why, I suspect, that he’s been moved. It’s not because he’s off-form because he’s delivered so much, but the game has changed.

Now that the referendum campaign is gearing up into a more combative phase, Alistair Carmichael’s quick wit will take the fight to Alex Salmond in a different way. He will give no quarter and let the SNP away with no nonsense. He will do it engagingly and effectively and make us all laugh in the process. He’ll be pithy, plain speaking and punchy.  I can see what they are trying to do in this new phase. but it still hurts to lose a good performer.

I do feel a bit sorry for him initially though. Imagine having to face Iain Duncan Smith and Chris Grayling around the Cabinet table and not be able to relax with a wee glass of wine later. His Go Sober for October pledge has so far raised over £500 and he will need extra motivation, so sponsor him if you can.

I’ve felt for some time that Carmichael is too big a talent not to have his own portfolio. He’s been great as Chief Whip, but keeping him lurking in Westminster’s shadows is not the best use of his considerable talents.

Alistair’s tenure is just beginning and I wish him well. He will do a fantastic job too with a completely different style.

This post is a thank you to Mike, though. In the manner of any trashy reality show, here are some of his highlights:

Journalists heaping praise upon him after his statement in the Commons when he launched the UK Government’s consultation on the Independence Referendum.

Brokering the historic Edinburgh Agreement, paving the way for the referendum on independence and ensuring that it was decisive, legal and fair.

Winning Best Scot at Westminster in 2012

Being described as Westminster’s answer to James Bond and the man who saved the union by John Rentoul, not a habitual fan of the Liberal Democrats.

And having the Sunday Mail actually mock him up as 007.

Mike, thanks. You’ve been brilliant and you have so much to be proud of.

* Caron Lindsay is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and blogs at Caron's Musings

Four quick thoughts from me on what today’s Lib Dem reshuffle means..

1. Nick feels secure enough to be ruthless.

Sacking both Michael Moore and Jeremy Browne is not something Nick would have been able to contemplate a year ago. Then – with the economy still mired in recession, his apology video still fresh in the memory, and Vince reminding everyone he stood ready, willing and able should the need arise – Nick was vulnerable, in need of allies. Now – with the economy recovering, Eastleigh defended and all key conference votes won – Nick feels able to asset himself.

2. This was about the people, not factions.

Michael Moore has every reason to feel disappointed: he has arguably been the most successful Lib Dem in the whole government judged by his achievements. Yet Nick feels he’s not the dynamic  face for the party in a crucial year when Scottish politics will take centre stage. A shrewd legislator but not enough of a showman  seems to be the verdict. We’ll see. Certainly Alistair Carmichael has big shoes to fill.

Jeremy Browne’s sacking is perhaps even more surprising – not because he’s looked comfortable at the Home Office (not even his most ardent admirers claim that), but because he  above all other Lib Dem MPs including Nick himself, is seen as the Orange Booker’s Orange Booker, and therefore regarded as very much a Cleggite. The Clegg view of Browne’s performance is revealing: “He was given the chance to put a liberal imprint on the Home Office. Ask yourself if he took that opportunity,” I was told.

This reshuffle was all about performance, current and future, not which wing of the party an MP’s from.

3. Norman Baker: the clearest sign yet of LibDem differentiation.

When the ‘Go home’ vans row broke out, Nick Clegg was on holiday. In his absence the party response was sluggish. That explains a lot, I think, about Norman’s appointment. It’s not that Nick expects Norman to get more of an inside track on the Home Office than Jeremy did, and be able to prevent Theresa May’s authoritarian knee-jerk — but he can rely on him to project a liberal message when the leader’s away. Jeremy’s appointment was all about trying to get a liberal influence within the department. It’s hard to see Norman’s as anything but a calculated move to seriously annoy the Home Office, and put clear yellow water between us and the Tories.

4. One unelected woman: is that the best we can do?

Don’t get me wrong, I’m a huge fan of Susan Kramer, and I think she’ll be a great asset at Transport. But it’s a shame we’ve lost the last opportunity to appoint a female cabinet minister with the chance to make a difference. (Perhaps there will be a mini-reshuffle next year, post-referendum, but by then there will be just months til the 2015 election.) It wasn’t probably the ideal time for the obvious candidate, Jo Swinson, who’s fighting an ultra-marginal seat and about to go on maternity leave. And with Sarah Teather ruled out, that leaves just 5 female Lib Dem MPs. Among them, only Lynne Featherstone has the ministerial experience but no obvious vacancy for her to fill. But it is shaming that, after our first stint in power in peace-time in a century, we still will not be able to say that a female Lib Dem has say at the cabinet table.

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and editor of the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead. He is also a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum and writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.

I posted earlier the most recent ratings by Lib Dem members of the party’s government ministers. Here’s how those affected by the reshuffle have done over the three-plus years we’ve been running our members’ surveys…

Sacked

Michael Moore (Secretary of State for Scotland, May 2010 to Oct 2013)

Jeremy Browne (Minister – Foreign Office, May 2010 to Sept 2012; Minister – Home Office, Sept 2012 to Oct 2013)

David Heath (Deputy Leader – Commons, May 2010 to Sept 2012; Minister – Rural Affairs, Sept 2012 to Oct 2013)

Promoted

Alistair Carmichael (Lib Dem chief whip, May 2010 to Oct 2013; now Secretary of State, Scotland)

Norman Baker (Minister – Transport, May 2010 to Oct 2013; now Minister – Home Office)

Don Foster (Minister – Communities and Local Government, Sept 2012 to Oct 2013; now Lib Dem chief whip)

* Stephen Tall is Co-Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, and editor of the 2013 publication, The Coalition and Beyond: Liberal Reforms for the Decade Ahead. He is also a Research Associate for the liberal think-tank CentreForum and writes at his own site, The Collected Stephen Tall.